LC Ideas: Views & Insights
LC Investment Playbook Monthly Update September
Table of Contents
Macro & Fixed Income
US CPI - Shelter is the pain point.
Fed funds rates expected at 4.8% by Q1 2023
Fed near term forward spread
Looking for safety - Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility.
US bond futures - market positioning.
Housing market sending recessionary signals.
Central banks - Jumbo hike club.
European Credit – GFC type scenario priced in
A review of US and EU long term rates and credit.
Equities
Equities moves explained by rates in 2022.
Equities and high yield at record correlation.
US equities: earnings will be decisive.
US equities: peak earnings?
S&P 500 strong support being tested.
Looking for safety: put options purchased to protect downside. reached 12-year high.
A review of the current environment and outlook of US, Europe, China and India equity markets.
Alternatives
Cryptos are a leveraged play on equities.
GBP crashes to all-time low.
EUR in free fall.
Europe energy - Russian gas contribution.
European natural gas at record high.
European electricity at record high.
Our team's take on allocations to: Real Estate, EUR and GBP share classes for Alternatives, EM Currencies (INR, CNY, etc) and external managers for commodities.
